The First Gamble – Was it worth it?

I got dealt a good set of cards this time

A month ago, I was in camp, bored and restless. I decided to take a look at the biggest loser list on the stock tracker I was using. At the very top of the list was the Noble Group stock which was down more than 10%. A curious me looked further into a longer timespan and realised that it had already fallen more than 80% since 2014. Lacking the tools and motivation to dig deeper into its core business or circumstance, I immediately bought it at $0.345, hoping that it would recover the next day simply through momentum.

It continued falling. Throughout early February, it went down to a low of $0.27. I debated with myself – one part of me was itching to double down and yet the conservative side of me held back. After thinking through, I decided not to do anything as I was clearly clueless about Noble Group’s core business and future prospects. During the past week, the stock rallied 25% and I sold my stock at $0.375 for a neat 8.7% profit. Not that I am unhappy to have made my first realized profit, but it left me puzzled as to whether what I did was right.

Should I have bought the stock in the first place?

Would one favor decisiveness over deliberation?

Should I have doubled down?

Or was it sheer luck I was able to have made it out with a profit?